Saudi Arabia’s Line shrinks to a hyphen, the brain inside Sora’s balloon head, and Disney invents TV!
It’s a fine line between stupid and clever
Extremely wealthy people often have extremely terrible ideas. I guess it’s possible that, on average, they have the same amount of terrible ideas — relative to good ones — as the non-wealthy. Maybe we only hear about their terrible ideas.
This sounds a bit abstract. Don’t worry, today I’m talking about a specific type of terrible idea: the kind that is not only grandiose and unrealistic but that’s intended to place the originator of the idea on an intellectual pedestal above other humans who, apparently, aren’t smart enough to be rich.
One such example is The Line. Last August, I covered the announcement of a unique Saudi Arabian development project. It was described as being one of four regions in the Neom community, which its backers in Riyadh hope will become “the land of the future, where the greatest minds and best talents are empowered to embody pioneering ideas and exceed boundaries in a world inspired by imagination.”
The official Neom website claimed that The Line would have no roads, cars, or emissions. It certainly seems like that was the only promise which might become a reality, because now The Line has been scaled back. Actually, “scaled back” is true in the same way that the lifeboats were a scaled-back version of The Titanic. And unlike that cursed ship, The Line has sunk even before it could be launched. The proposed 170-kilometer building will only stretch 2.4 kilometers by 2030. The Line will look more like a hyphen.
We all know that petro-states invest a lot of time and money in greenwashing. But the men behind The Line appear to have forgotten the first principle of reputation laundering: you have to actually do the thing. For example, the Qataris bought a World Cup and, although the human rights issues observers feared did in fact materialize, at least there was an event where a bunch of guys kicked balls while fans watched.
It’s interesting that Neom is billed by its boosters as “the land of the future” because another futuristic terrible idea proposes fleeing from the land we all share. Elon Musk’s Mars project implies that our planet doesn’t have much to offer any more, so we should try colonizing our nearest neighbour. This isn’t a science newsletter so I won’t present the details of why this is a practical impossibility, but although Musk has managed to create a rocket launch company with massive government funding, his imagination appears to exceed his capacity when it comes to making Martians of us. An instructive case would be his overpromising when it comes to self-driving cars. And compared to Teslas which you can snooze in on the highway, his mission to Mars is a genuine pie-in-the-sky project.
Tech bro pied pipers making extravagant claims are nothing new. Each week there's buzz about the AI companies moving inexorably closer to Artificial General Intelligence, despite no definition of "general intelligence" ever being offered. (Here’s a clue as to why: there isn’t one!) I’m sure that business hype has been around ever since the wheel was invented, but the self-aggrandizing fantasy scheme is a totally different kettle of fake fish. The fact is that men (yup, it’s almost always men) who have expertise in one area can be spectacularly dumb in another. This unjustified confidence is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, and you can read more about it in the DISS comfort segment below.
Whether they are proposed in order to wash reputations, drive pretensions, or fund corporations, speculative mega-projects are nothing more than doomed follies. Just like this intro’s title (a quote from the greatest movie satire ever made) The Line has now become nothing but a punchline.
Disney invents TV!
When I was a kid in England, there were three TV channels and two of them were the BBC. Oh boy, what a day it was when I turned sixteen and the imaginatively named Channel 4 was launched! Then I moved to Canada and suddenly there were hundreds of cable channels. And one day streaming arrived. Never again would we have to sit on the couch at exactly the right time on a Thursday evening to watch Seinfeld. No more royalties for creators from syndicated reruns. Cable subscribers “cut the cord” and enjoyed total freedom of choice with helpful algorithms to serve up the shows.
Life was good if you liked TV. And then the obvious thing happened: the broadcasters who had seen their lunch eaten by Netflix and the movie studios who had seen their supper also eaten by Netflix decided to launch their own streaming services. Before long, viewers were stuck paying more overall for streaming than they used to for cable. This month, we’ve come full circle, as Disney announced a slew of linear (i.e. scheduled shows, not streamed) cable-style channels to Disney+. Just like old-fashioned broadcast TV, the shows on these channels will feature commercials. This is usually known in the industry as a FAST (free, ad-supported streaming) service, except that Disney+ isn’t free.
So to sum up, viewers are being asked to pay (like cable), watch ads (like broadcast), and have no scheduling options (like before DVRs existed). Call it peak capitalism, call it enshittification, or call it the circle of TV life… either way, I’m enjoying fond memories of there being “nothing on TV” and having to play with my friends.
Google invents videos!
If you already use Google Docs for spreadsheets and text documents, you’ll soon be seeing a prompt to use Google Vids. As this YouTube video explains, a simple text prompt is all you will need to make a great training video or animated presentation. The extravagant claim is that “now, everyone can be a great storyteller through video with Google Vids, a new AI-powered video creation app for work. Vids is your video, writing, production, and editing assistant, all in one. It can generate a storyboard that you can easily edit, and after choosing a style, it pieces together your first draft with suggested scenes from stock videos, images, and background music.”
Call me skeptical, but the idea of an “entirely new app that can help anyone become a great storyteller at work” might be overpromising slightly. It wasn’t long after Powerpoint was developed that we experienced “death by Powerpoint” and I suspect that something similar might be on the horizon. The (for once, non-toxic) comments under the YouTube video ironically point out that Google Vids clearly was not used to create the promo video for Google Vids.
In related news, video editing software Adobe Premier Pro will soon feature tools from Adobe Firefly AI that can, “streamline workflows and unlock new creative possibilities, from extending a shot to adding or removing objects in a scene.” Although I would have loved to be able to make a shot longer back when I was a video editor, I’m again skeptical that having powerful tools will equate to the untrained user also receiving an automatic creative upgrade.
Robot dog invents nightmares!
The Ohio-based company Throwflame is appropriately named because it sells flamethrowers that are “built with pride by military veterans in the heartland of the USA.” This week their product line was expanded to include the Thermonator, the “first-ever flamethrower-wielding robot dog”. The remote-controlled, fire-spitting metallic canine costs only US$9,420 and you can pay in easy installments. The question you probably have is, why would anyone want such a thing, apart from scaring the bejesus out of the neighbors and, you know, killing shit? According to the Throwflame website, the Thermonator has a 30ft range, WiFi + Bluetooth, and can be used for wildfire control and prevention, agricultural management, ecological conservation, snow and ice removal… and entertainment.
I’m looking forward to seeing these things roaming the streets of Montreal next winter, removing snow and ice while also entertaining the kids. Not sure about Canada, but according to Throwflame, “in the USA flamethrowers are federally unregulated and not even considered a firearm (ironic) by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, & Firearms.” And in case you’re wondering, the company also sells “Napalm Mix”. Free shipping in the US, too!
Walter Woodman, Imagineer at shy kids
When OpenAI’s video generation tool was launched with short clips of mammoths, a spaceman, and pirates in a coffee cup tempest, lots of people got excited. Some pirates went on strike in protest. The mammoths stayed extinct.
And although the technical achievements of Sora were impressive and fun, I felt compelled to write an article for The Generator explaining why generative video AI wasn’t going to turn every laptop owner into Steven Spielberg by 2025.
Then, in late March, Sora released a series of short films that upped the stakes because many of them featured engaging storytelling in addition to awesome rendering. One of those films, called Air Head (imho the most impressive by far in artistic terms), was made by Toronto creative trio shy kids. You can see it here (it’s the first of the bunch, with the yellow balloon guy).
But I was intrigued by the specifics of how that film was created. I suspected that the varied creative talents of shy kids were a more significant factor in its watchability than Sora’s AI-generated shots. So I got in touch with director Walter Woodman and was delighted when he agreed to an interview.
Q. Walter, you and your partners at shy kids have created one of the first short films using Sora, OpenAI’s yet-to-be-released AI video generation tool. How much human creativity, artistry, and craftsmanship went into the video, from concept to scriptwriting and editing?
A. Participating in the Sora project offered an exciting opportunity for us, members of the OpenAI artist group, to collaborate and innovate. Our motivation was clear: we aimed to explore how Sora could become a vital tool for independent filmmakers. We envisioned creating a film that embodied hope and imagination, especially pertinent in a world that often seems filled with doom and gloom.
The concept for our film centered around a character with a balloon for a head, symbolizing the expansion of human imagination. This creative choice wasn't necessarily exclusive to using Sora, but it served as a powerful metaphor for perspective, an element we consider crucial when utilizing such innovative tools.
Interaction with Sora was straightforward, akin to typing commands into systems like ChatGPT or Dall-E. While Sora proved user-friendly in various aspects, it also presented unique challenges typical of new technologies. These challenges reminded us that integrating Sora with conventional visual effects (VFX) techniques could enhance its effectiveness, rather than relying on it solely.
Working with Sora marked a departure from our previous video projects. It afforded us greater flexibility in scripting and editing, though it also complicated certain production aspects, like movement transitions. Despite these nuances, Sora contributed to producing some striking visuals that might have been unfeasible with traditional methods alone.
The introduction of generative AI technologies like Sora into filmmaking heralds a significant shift. It diversifies the toolkit available to filmmakers, which some may find indispensable, while others might never adopt. For us, the potential of such tools is a thrilling addition to the creative landscape.
Regarding the impact of generative AI on the filmmaking process, I believe it's a mixed bag. Although these technologies can streamline certain processes, filmmaking remains an inherently complex, collaborative endeavor that thrives on fresh ideas and passionate teamwork. As long as creativity and individuality are at the heart of our work, we don't perceive generative AI as a threat to our profession.
However, the rise of generative AI will undoubtedly necessitate enhanced media literacy among audiences. It's crucial for viewers to critically engage with content and recognize the distinction between AI-generated and organically produced works. In some respects, traditional filmmaking techniques, such as puppetry or practical effects, may become even more valued for their tangible, authentic qualities.
Looking ahead, I don't foresee a drastic reduction in the number of people involved in filmmaking. On the contrary, technologies like Sora might democratize content creation, similar to the impact of smartphones and home video cameras, enabling broader participation. At shy kids, our intent is to expand our collaborative network, continually working with talented individuals who bring their expertise and creativity to our projects.
As for the future, while there's a possibility that AI could produce commercial films independently, the notion doesn't quite resonate with our vision of cinema. Films, in our view, should enhance our humanity, not diminish it. The core of filmmaking should revolve around storytelling that connects with audiences on a personal level, something that pure AI might not achieve.
Finally, as media becomes increasingly customizable, people might soon find themselves as protagonists in their own narrative experiences. While this future is fascinating, our focus remains on fostering hope, not fear, believing that the best use of technology is one that brings us together, enhancing our collective human experience.
shy kids, a team of multi-faceted artists, began as three friends from Toronto, and has now evolved into a small but versatile production company. They create most of their projects from scratch, proficient in various aspects such as writing, directing, producing, shooting, editing, animating, VFX, and composing music. They are known for their vibrant animation, dubbed “punk-rock Pixar”. Their work has garnered Emmy nominations and been long-listed for the Oscars. currently, shy kids is involved in producing series for major entertainment platforms like Disney, HBO, AMC, and Netflix.
Stupidity might not be as stupid as we think
Ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect? It’s a cognitive bias that is commonly understood as unjustified confidence in one’s expertise on a specific topic (see my intro above). In other words, being too dumb to know that you’re dumb. Initial research into the effect also showed that people who had real expertise in a domain were less likely to be confident of their ability!
But in this interview, David Dunning – half of the pair of psychologists who first proposed the effect in 1999 – explains that it can apply to all of us at some point, saying, “You can be incredibly intelligent in one area and completely not have expertise in another area.” We experience its impact at times such as the Covid pandemic when it seemed as though anyone with a medical degree suddenly became an epidemiologist. The Dunning-Kruger effect appears in a raw and often vicious form in online commentary, and I even used it as the theme of a satirical piece that was published following the start of the Israel-Hamas war, when everyone on the planet was an instant expert in Middle East history and politics.
From a marketing and branding standpoint, this nugget is also valuable: “Our research suggests that a lot of our decisions, including purely economic ones, are driven by social and emotional concerns.” Something for data-driven performance marketers to remember.
RIP Lil Miquela
AI-generated influencers are exploding on social media. But the crazy thing is that they have already been around for eight years! A “19-year-old Brazilian-American model, singer, and sometimes activist” called Lil Miquela first appeared on screens way back in 2016.
Lil Miquela was made by tech firm Brud and quickly amassed millions of followers on Instagram, even though it wasn’t entirely clear whether she was real or fictional. This episode of the Endless Thread podcast reports on the mysterious origin story of Lil Miquela, her commercial successes (including lucrative brand partnerships with the likes of BMW and Calvin Klein) and her recent declining relevance. One interesting question the show asks is: what happens when an influencer can never grow older with her audience?
New book next week!
My new novel comes out on Tuesday and you can order copies directly from me as well as from Amazon worldwide and Barnes & Noble in the US. Bonus if you order from me: signed and personalized copies are available!
Please let me know what you think about Discomfort Zone by commenting directly in the online version of the newsletter, or by emailing me at john@johnbdutton.com.
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